Toronto’s mayoral election is shaping up to be a closely contested race, with incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow maintaining a narrow lead over challenger Brad Bradford, according to a new Mainstreet Research poll released on October 9, 2026.
The latest survey shows Chow ahead by 2.9 percentage points among decided and leaning voters, a difference that falls within the poll’s margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
With approximately three and a half weeks remaining before election day and advance voting underway, the findings suggest that the outcome remains uncertain as candidates compete for support across Toronto.
Mainstreet Research Poll Shows Narrowing Toronto Mayoral Race
The survey was conducted on October 6 and 7, following the withdrawal of Chris Alexander from the mayoral contest.
According to Mainstreet Research, Alexander’s departure has contributed to a tightening race between Chow and Bradford, with the latest voting intentions indicating a competitive electoral environment.
Although Chow continues to lead, the difference between the two candidates is now smaller than the survey’s reported margin of error. This means the poll does not establish a statistically conclusive lead for either candidate.
The findings also suggest that voter turnout could play an important role in determining the election result.
Brad Bradford Gains Momentum Following Candidate Withdrawal
Mainstreet Research President and CEO Quito Maggi said Alexander’s withdrawal has changed the dynamics of the contest.
“ With the exit of Chris Alexander, this race now is truly coming down to the wire” said Quito Maggi, President & CEO of Mainstreet Research.
“While the relative turnout of voters will play a factor in the eventual outcome, it appears the Bradford campaign may have some momentum” he added.
The polling company’s assessment indicates that Bradford may be benefiting from changes in voter preferences following Alexander’s departure.
However, the survey represents voting intentions during a specific period rather than a prediction of the final election outcome.
Toronto Voting Preferences Differ by Gender and Age
The latest polling snapshot identifies notable differences in candidate support across demographic groups.
Among male respondents, Bradford holds the advantage, while Chow receives stronger support from female voters.
Age also appears to influence voting preferences. Younger respondents are more likely to support Chow, while older voters indicate a preference for Bradford.
These differences could become significant as the campaigns focus on mobilizing supporters during the remaining weeks of the election.
The findings highlight how voter participation across demographic groups may influence the final result, particularly given the narrow overall polling difference.
Chow Leads in Scarborough and North York While Bradford Holds Etobicoke
The survey also identifies geographic differences in voter preferences across Toronto.
Chow maintains an advantage in Downtown Toronto, Scarborough and North York, while Bradford leads in Etobicoke.
Maggi said the withdrawal of Alexander has contributed to changes in support, particularly among East Asian voters.
“Chow continues to lead in Downtown, Scarborough & North York, while Bradford leads in Etobicoke. The exit of Alexander has closed this gap, especially among East Asian voters who broke to Bradford” he continued.
These regional differences suggest that campaign efforts in individual neighbourhoods and voter turnout across Toronto could prove important in the final stages of the election.
Traffic Congestion and TTC Reliability Included in Voter Survey
Beyond candidate preferences, Mainstreet Research examined public concerns about traffic congestion and the reliability of Toronto Transit Commission services.
Both issues affect transportation across Canada’s largest city and have implications for commuting, business operations and economic productivity.
Traffic delays can influence employee travel times, commercial deliveries and access to workplaces, while public transit reliability remains important for residents who depend on the TTC.
The release did not provide detailed findings from these questions, leaving the extent of voter concern about each issue unclear.
Toronto Mayoral Election Outcome Remains Uncertain
With the polling gap within the reported margin of error, the contest remains competitive as the campaign enters its final weeks.
Maggi suggested that Chow’s prospects of securing another term have become less certain.
“With a short runway remaining, the chances of a Chow re-election are less and less certain” he concluded.
The latest Mainstreet Research findings indicate that turnout, demographic preferences and regional voting patterns could play important roles in determining Toronto’s next mayor.
For now, Chow retains a narrow polling advantage, but the survey suggests neither leading candidate has established a decisive position ahead of election day.
Evan McKenzie is a contributor at Vaughantoday.ca, covering a wide range of topics including local news, politics, business, technology, sports, entertainment, and lifestyle. He focuses on clear, balanced reporting that helps readers stay informed about current events and issues that matter to their communities. His work aims to provide useful information, timely updates, and relevant stories presented in an accessible and reader-friendly way.