Réseau de transport de la Capitale (RTC) on Wednesday published an update of its ride expectations taking into account modifications that have been made to the tram and its network over the past two years, including a change of route to Pole D. ‘Estimauville.
The updated report predicts a 30% increase in the number of public transport riders in the Quebec metropolitan area once the trams are in service in 2028.
won 10.4 million
This represents an increase of 10.4 million trips over the first year, with a total of 45.1 million trips.
This passenger forecast includes a grid PSTNon the north shore, and Société de Transportation de Lévis, on the south shore.
Compared to the reference year 2017, the number of public transport passengers (tram and bus) during rush hour (6 am to 9 am) will decrease from 37,200 to 50,800 people from the first year. This represents an additional 13,600 users, or the equivalent of 160 articulated buses.
These data alone justify the construction of the tram line, the chief believes PSTNMaud Mercier of Thrones. It confirms that the current network of PSTN It simply does not have the capacity to accommodate the expected new displacements.
Status quo, no longer possible […] Where do we put them, 160 articulated buses? We do not currently have the capacity to absorb thisinsists a Municipal Council member and member of the Executive Committee of Quebec City.
” bus network […] It has reached the saturation point. Therefore, we necessarily need such a project as a tramway. »
Of the 50,800 additional users expected at rush hour, 20,600 users will use the tram partially or alone.
This represents a decrease of about 3,000 people compared to the traffic forecast made on the route to 76th Street, in Charlesburg.
The PSTNThis discrepancy is explained by the difference in length between the Charlesburg road and that leading to Destimoville.
The road to D’Estimauville is about 3 km shorter. So in a shorter way the service area is obviously smaller. There are fewer people within the service area [et] There are fewer people directly within walking distance. This affects the results of trafficsaid the head of the planning service at PSTN Luke Samson.
Never seen like him
The start of the tram line will also increase the proportion of the population choosing to use public transportation from 8.1% to 10.6% rather than choosing another mode (single car, shared car use or active transportation).
It might seem relatively low because we’re talking about 2.5 percentage points here [mais] From a historical perspective, typical quota increases of this magnitude are something we haven’t seen beforeLuke Samson confirmed.
The updated attendance forecast does not take into account the effects of remote work, the widespread dissemination of which since the beginning of the health crisis has had an impact on the use of public transport.
The PSTNIt is estimated that working from home could eventually lead to a 10% reduction in public transit trips. However, it has been determined that other factors, which are difficult to predict and quantify, can have an effect on increased traffic.
This is the case, among other things, for the increase in gasoline prices, which can encourage motorists to switch to public transport.
Economic growth, immigration, real estate developments along the tram route, and increased awareness of the effects of climate change are also likely to increase the attractiveness of public transportation.
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