Monday, July 15, 2024

Legislation in France: Macron and the united left neck and neck

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Cole Hanson
Cole Hanson
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We’ll have to wait for the second round, next Sunday, to see if Emmanuel Macron, who was re-elected on April 24 For a second five-year term, it may or may not retain an absolute majority and, thereafter, its ability to freely implement its reform policy.

The outgoing presidential majority, under the designation Ensemble! , received 25.75% of the vote, or 21,442 more votes than the left-wing coalition NUPES assembled behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon (25.66%), out of 23, 3 million voters.

However, Macron’s camp maintains an advantage in its forecast of 577 seats for MPs, with a range of 255 to 295 seats, ahead of the NUPES (from 150 to 210), according to polling institutes. The absolute majority in the National Assembly is 289 seats.

More than one in every voter avoided the polls on Sunday, with a new record of 52.49% abstentions, surpassing the figure recorded in 2017 (51.3%), highlighting the French’s lack of interest in the election, which has now been overshadowed by the presidential election. .

Jean-Luc Melenchon after the vote in Marseille, southern France

Photo: Associated Press/Daniel Cole

The truth is that the presidential party is being beaten and defeated. »

Quote from Jean-Luc Melenchon

Mister Melenchon called his troops to do so rushes strength In the second round of legislative elections. It may, however, suffer from a lack of vote reserve in the second round and severe abstentions that particularly affect the young and working classes, according to experts.

The National Rally (RN), Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, which reached the finals of the presidential election on April 24, comes in third place, with 19% of the vote, far ahead of the traditional right, which should lose its place. The first group, the opposition.

The far-right party, which has long been punished by the electoral majority system in legislative elections, can exceed 15 deputies, the first since 1986, when there was a dose of proportional representation, which would allow it to form a parliamentary group.

Ms Le Pen called herself a candidate in her stronghold in northern France with 55% of the vote (but with a turnout too low to be elected in the first round) All his voters to confirm and amplify their vote Where the RN nominees qualify for the second round, in order To send a very large group of patriotic representatives to the new National Assembly.

This is legislative And thus confirms the reshaping of the French political landscape on a large scale Committed to electing Mr Macron in 2017.

Macron seeks ‘strong and clear’ majority

The presence of a majority, not absolute but a relative, in the Assembly will complicate the course of the reforms that President Macron wishes to undertake, particularly with regard to pensions.

This is a very serious warning to Emmanuel Macronnotes researcher Brice Teinturier, recalling that Seven points lower than (in the last legislative elections) in 2017.

For another expert, Frederic Dabi, The united left succeeded in imposing a narrative on the French.

The Minister for Relations with Parliament, Olivier Veran, confirmed this Sunday evening Warning Regarding the presidential majority was understand.

Mr Macron rallied at the end of the campaign, calling on the French to give him an award clear and strong majority.

stand as a fortress against extremiststhus targeting the radical left of Mr. Melenchon and the extreme right of Marine Le Pen, synonymous according to him with disturbance For France.

The executive has also insisted in recent weeks that he intends to vote in July on a set of purchasing power measures in order to counter inflation that is hitting household budgets and affecting business accounts.

The elections are taking place in a climate of concern among the French about rising food and energy prices.

In the event that the left led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon could win by an absolute majority, which would force an unprecedented coexistence of a president just re-elected, he would be deprived of almost all his powers in domestic politics.

Beeper bites the dust

A veteran of French political life, Mr. Melenchon has proven his main opponent by leading an unprecedented coalition of socialists, communists, environmentalists and his own movement (La France insoumise).

A man and a girl pass in front of election posters for the legislative elections in Bayonne.

Photo: Associated Press/Bob Edmy

Among the big losers on Sunday night was former far-right presidential candidate Eric Zemmour, who was running in southern France and was eliminated from the first round.

These legislative elections could also lead to a reshuffle of the newly formed government, many of whose members are candidates, including the prime minister.

According to preliminary estimates, the Minister of Environmental Transition and Regional Cohesion Amélie de Montchalin is in an unfavorable poll in the Paris suburbs, as is the Minister of European Affairs Clément Beaune in Paris.

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