Tuesday night captured the attention of American political enthusiasts for several reasons.
Since we’re already considering the Republican majorities in both houses of Congress, this evening’s primaries provided a spotlight on the candidates who will meet next November.
One noteworthy indicator is the attempt to gauge the popularity of former President Trump. A person who could return in 2024 did not hesitate to support several candidates and many results were interpreted as a measure of his influence.
Among the analyzes and statistics conducted since Tuesday evening, I focused particularly on observations Written by former Republican political advisor Keith Naughton on the site hill. His interpretation of the results goes beyond just the profit and loss column.
Newton notes that in both the 2016 campaign and yesterday’s results, there is a noticeable trend in the performance of Donald Trump or the candidates seeking his approval. Often times we win by exploiting the voting split.
For example, the author states that during the Republican primaries leading up to the 2016 presidential election, candidate Trump faced an astonishing number of challengers. Several of them, notably Jeb Bush and John Kasich, have stuck around for a long time, allowing the reality star to slide to the fore.
When we combine the support of Kasich and Bush in South Carolina, they correspond to a winning margin for the person who would become 45And president. While Bush learned his lesson and quit, Kasich refused to back down, contributing to Trump’s victories in nine states.
What we observed in 2016 seems to be repeated in 2022. For Donald Trump, yesterday’s results were mixed. Few defeats, but the majority of victories, the most important of which occurred in Pennsylvania, a crucial state during the presidential election.
When we analyze the wins, the 2016 phenomenon stands out. Naughton notes that there is a lot of “John Kasich” splitting the vote. Artillery shells are a major obstacle for those who stand a chance of defeating Trump supporters in a head-to-head confrontation.
Excluding results in Pennsylvania, candidates backed by the former president are struggling to get more than a third of the vote. Without noting that the “Trump effect” has worn off or that Republicans may have nasty surprises in November, we can legitimately say there are cracks in the wall.
After yesterday evening and next November’s election, what Naughton is referring to also reveals that the Trump clan is not well established. If these naysayers are able to put their ego aside along with the best candidate, the godfather of Mar-a-Lago might falter.
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