Monday, May 20, 2024

Final Expectations: The Democrats have a 3 in 4 chance to overturn the Senate

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Alan Binder
Alan Binder
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The Democrats prefer to control the Senate in the 2020 elections, according to the final version of FiveThirtyEight forecast for the Senate. With expectations set just fine from early Tuesday morning, the Democrats have a 75 in 100 chance to turn the room around. Meanwhile, Republicans have a 25 in 100 chance of maintaining control – likely like pulling a spade off a deck of cards.

However, prof Your Of the seats are still competitive; In 80 percent of our model simulations, the Democrats end up anywhere between 48 and 55 seats. That’s a big range! And the number of seats here matters, because it’s not just about controlling the room. Winning 50 seats (plus the Vice President’s decisive vote) is a very different outcome for Democrats than winning 55, with the size of the majority affecting how likely their ambitious agenda is to pass over the objections of more moderate Democrats like, say, Senator Joe Mansion from West Virginia.

Now for those competitive seats. There are a whopping 17 seats in the Senate where at least both parties have a 5 in 100 chance of winning. But the main reason Democrats generally favor it is because Republicans have much more seats at risk – 13 in total, as the table below shows. (We’ll look at those four seats the Democrats could lose in a moment.)

Democrats have many chances to take seats in the Senate

Republican-controlled Senate seats that have a less than 95 percent chance of remaining in the Republican Party, according to final numbers from the Deluxe Edition FiveThirtyEight Predictions

Chance to win
status What should be in the current situation dim. the Republican Party
Colorado Corey Gardner 84% 16%
Arizona * Martha McSaley 78 22
North Carolina Tom Telles 68 32
Georgia * Kelly Loeffler 63 37
who Susan Collins 59 41
Georgia David Purdue 43 57
Yes Johnny Ernst 42 58
Montana Steve Dines 31 69
South Carolina Lindsay Graham 23 77
Alaska And Sullivan 23 77
KS Open 20 80
Texas John Cornyn 14 86
Mississippi Cindy Hyde Smith 12 88

* Special elections.

Remember, the Democrats need only three net winners (if they also win the vice presidency) or four (if Vice President Mike Pence wins a second term) in order to take over. But not all of those Republican seats are equally vulnerable – so let’s break them down into categories based on roughly how likely they are to turn blue.

First, there are two seats Republicans hold likely to fall into the hands of the Democrats: Colorado And the Arizona. In Colorado, the chances of former governor John Hickenlooper defeating Republican Senator Corey Gardner are particularly strong: 84 out of 100. This is probably partly due to the fact that Joe Biden appears Extremely likely To carry Colorado, and it is becoming increasingly scarce for voters Split their tickets Between the presidential and Senate races. In Arizona, Biden’s victory is Less certainBut former astronaut Mark Kelly has proven a very powerful recruiter for the Arizona Democrats More than $ 87 million In pioneering individual contributions Almost every poll Since entering the race Early 2019. She gets hurt by the fact that she’s been appointed Senator (which is what bestows her Almost no advantage for a position), Republican Martha Maxalie has only 22 out of 100 chance to win.

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Two additional seats held by Republicans lean towards the Democrats – though we will likely only know who won one of them today: North Carolina. There, former state Senator Cal Cunningham was 68 of the 100 running to defeat Republican Senator Thom Tillis. Although revealing that Cunningham Send sexual messages to a woman who is not his wife, The race was very stable, and he managed to hold on to Narrow bullets in the ballot. We give Democrats similar odds (63 out of 100 chance) at the end Georgia special elections But it is almost certain that this race will not be decided until January. That’s because the race is a battle royale between 20 candidates from all parties (there was no primary election), making it nearly impossible for any candidate to get the majority of votes needed to win. Assuming that doesn’t happen, the first-placed leaders will advance to the replay on January 5th. Democrats are currently leading in the run-off polls, but a lot could happen in the next couple of months, and Georgia remains a country with Republican tendencies.

Then there are the three seats held by the Republicans that are more or less than that. in a whoDemocratic State Council President Sarah Gideon has 59 out of 100 chances to win, while incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins has 41 chances out of 100. Polls She generally preferred Gideon, but Collins is with her Moderate voting record And date Is ahead of other Republicans In Maine, it’s a powerful incumbent who might be able to conquer the state’s bluish tinge. The tables have been turned Georgia’s other race in the SenateRepublican Senator David Purdue has 57 out of 100 odds, and Democrat contender John Oseff is not too far behind 43 in 100. There’s also a good chance that this race will go to the run-off, with our average vote expectation showing any candidate up to 50. percent. Last but not least, Yes It is another virtual racing game: Republican Senator Johnny Ernst has 58 out of 100 chances to win, while Democrat Teresa Greenfield has 42 in 100.

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But the races that can really make the difference between the slim Democratic majority and the strong majority are the six Republican-held seats where Democrats are vulnerable – but still have an outside opportunity to take off. Perhaps the candidate most likely to be bothered is MontanaRepublican Senator Steve Dines has 69 out of 100 chances to win – but Democrat Steve Bullock, the popular governor of the state, has 31 out of 100 chances. Democrats also have a respectable 23 out of 100 chance. Alaska 20 of 100 chances are in KSTheir candidates have strong independent identities that could help them swim against the partisanship in these somewhat red states. In Alaska, Al Grose is Independent running as a Democrat; In Kansas, Senator Barbara Pollier was from the Republican Party Until 2018. And in South Carolina, Jaime Harrison Peto O’Rourke for the 2020 Cycle – Democrat running a surprisingly powerful campaign in Red State against the bold Republican name (in this case, Senator Lindsey Graham). Harrison raised Approximately $ 108 million (!) In individual contributions, she recently broke O’Rourke’s record for The largest Senate fundraising quarter Start. Harrison has also kept things close at Polls But only 23 out of 100 have a chance to win. Finally, Senators Cindy Hyde Smith (88 out of 100) and John Cornyn (86 out of 100) are the health favorites to win another term in Mississippi And the Texas, Respectively, but it’s not completely safe either.

This is a plethora of potential democratic convergences. But the number of seats the Democrats get is only half the equation: let’s not forget that Republicans have few opportunities to play the insult as well, which could nullify some of the Democrats ’gains. The problem for Republicans is simply that they have fewer seats to target. In fact, they’ll likely only flip over one seat.

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The Republican Party has fewer chances of getting seats in the Senate

Democratic-controlled Senate seats that have a less than 95 percent chance of remaining a Democrat, according to final figures from the luxury edition of FiveThirtyEight Predictions

Chance to win
status What should be in the current situation dim. the Republican Party
Alabama Doug Jones 13% 87%
Michigan Gary Peters 83 17
New Mexico Open 94 6
Minnesota Tina Smith 95 5

This in AlabamaRepublican Tommy Toberville has an 87 in 100 chance of defeating Democratic Senator Doug Jones. Whereas Jones is the incumbent and has raised a large sum of money (further From Tuberville), it can be said that he won the seat in the 2017 special election only because scandal The Republican opponent A. A historically weak candidate. Ultimately, our expectations think Alabama is too red for Jones to win re-election.

The Democrats are the strong candidates in every Democratic-controlled Senate seat this year. Some Republicans are optimistic that John James can defeat Senator Gary Peters in Michigan – He is one of the strongest recruits for Republicans in the cycle, having grown up Almost $ 36 million In individual contributions – but our projections nonetheless give James a chance of 17 out of 100. and New Mexico And the Minnesota On the verge of being uncompetitive, Republicans have a 6 out of 100 chance in the first and 5 out of 100 in the second.

With the Republicans potentially defeating one of the Democratic candidates, the Democrats may need to turn over the four Republican seats to secure that desired majority. And it’s very possible: They have a clear path to do it through Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina and (maybe ultimately) Georgia – not to mention many other states where they have a real shot, if it’s longer. Overall, when the dust subsides, our projections are that the Democrats will have an average of 52 Senate seats and the Republicans an average of 48. Nevertheless, while we hope to know on Tuesday night which party will dominate the next Senate, we surely won, “You don’t know its exact composition thanks to a possible runoff in Georgia and Slow votes count in states like Alaska. It may be below our expectations, but stay with FiveThirtyEight for the next several weeks as we wrap up all the loose ends in the Senate and elsewhere.

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