These are two lowercase letters, but they change (almost) everything. to “pandemic”, Covid, which is sweeping everywhere due to the wave associated with the Omicron variant, could soon become “endemic”, According to several experts. Last week, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) estimated that we would “Towards the localization of the virus”. “With increased immunity in the population – and with an omicron there will be a lot of natural immunity in addition to vaccination – we will move quickly towards a scenario closer to endemicity,” Marco Cavalieri, EMA’s head of vaccine strategy, reassured. An endemic disease is a permanent and stable condition in a particular location. implicitly without harming the health system due to uncontrollable episodes of high fever.
Could this be the case in the near future with Covid? The current course of the epidemic in France may lead one to believe. Thus, the Pasteur Institute has just revised its forecast, now relying on assumptions more optimistic than those conceived a few weeks ago. “We are heading towards scenarios that are still too complex for the hospital, But they are not the most difficult that can arise, ” Summarized researcher Simon Kochems told AFP.
Spain opens discussion
The peak daily hospitalizations could be reached at the end of January between 2,500 and just over 5,000. And then we’ll surpass the record for spring 2020, but not in critical care admissions, which will be limited to 6,000. From 7,000 thereafter. Here researchers are applying lessons learned from O’Micron’s visits to South Africa and the United Kingdom. There, the sufferers were less severe than the delta sufferers. And when hospitalization was necessary, it lasted less.
In total, the effect will be “It could potentially be absorbed by hospital services, if we make an effort to reduce transmission,” Simon Cochems appreciates. Efforts have already been made, according to fellow epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet. “The health disaster was averted, in part thanks to the behavior of the French,” the cars « We could have had a much worse situation if there had not been a team effort since the beginning of January.” who allowed “Reduce the number of contacts”, The researcher pointed out, Monday to France Inter. who also depends on « The Covid epidemic is very regular during the winter phases, in the coming years”, But with fewer consequences, thanks to immunity enhanced by vaccinations or infections. Spain, whose socialist Pedro Sanchez, after being widely vaccinated, has indicated that it is working on a new model for disease monitoring, which it wants to open a debate on at the European level. This model will leave aside the accounting for every positive case and even the abandonment of testing in the event of minor symptoms. only doctors “guards” He will be responsible for monitoring potential outbreaks, similar to what is practiced in France for influenza. “The Spanish decision, scientifically understood, seems too early to me, He was sentenced on Monday by Yves Copeters, an epidemiologist at the Free University of Brussels, in Cross. Assuming that future variants of SARS-CoV-2 will be as benign as other coronaviruses that already infect humans and cause colds is a gamble. But who’s to tell us we won’t see a new, more lethal variant arrive in the coming months? »
